Shimon Peres’ chances to form a Labor-led coalition government suffered a possibly fatal blow when the pivotal Shas party agreed late Sunday night to support Likud instead.
Barring a sudden change in Peres’ fortunes, the task of forming a new government will go to acting Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, the Likud leader, as soon as Peres’ presidential mandate expires Thursday.
Another strong possibility is the replacement of Peres by Labor’s more popular No. 2 leader, former Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin, as head of the party.
But Peres, who has struggled unsuccessfully to form a government since March 20, refused to give up Monday.
He flatly rejected Likud urgings that he acknowledge defeat and hand back his mandate to President Chaim Herzog immediately, so that it could be passed to Shamir without further delay.
While members of the Rabin camp insisted their man stood a better chance than Peres to set up a government and might still pull it off, Laborites as a whole seem resigned that Shamir will become prime minister-designate before the week ends.
But many in Labor think it is not too late to change the party leadership. They believe that with Rabin at the helm, Labor can successfully block Shamir’s coalition-building efforts for the 42 days he is allowed by law.
After that, the theory goes, Rabin’s candidacy might be advanced, either as prime minister of a narrow coalition or of another national unity government.
Peres’ supporters insist the game is not over.
But their bravado seems to stem from vague hopes that Likud’s allies on the extreme right wing will balk at the deal struck between Shamir and the Sephardic sages who govern the ultra-Orthodox Shas.
SPECULATION OVER AGREEMENT
A paradox that fueled Labor’s hopes was that Shas, uncompromising on religious issues, is remarkably dovish on the peace process.
The party’s spiritual mentor, former Sephardic Chief Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, a renown halachic authority, subscribes to the land-for-peace formula, which is compatible with Labor’s views but anathema to Likud.
Yosef demanded last month that the Shamir government accept U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s formula for Israeli-Palestinian talks in Cairo to implement Palestinian elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Although elections were part of the peace plan launched by Shamir in May 1989, the Likud leader balked on the issues of who could represent the Palestinians at preliminary talks and which Palestinians could cast ballots in the elections.
When Shamir could not give an ironclad commitment, Yosef ordered Shas’ five-member Knesset faction to absent itself during the March vote on a Labor-sponsored no-confidence motion. As a result, Shamir’s government was toppled.
Labor thought it could count on Shas support or at least its neutrality. Indeed, Yosef declared on the radio March 18 that he would have had to “answer to God for the needless blood that might be spilled” had he supported a “rightist-extremist” government of Likud with the right-wing Tehiya, Tsomet and Moledet parties.
That seemed to be the thinking of Shas until Sunday night, when its four Torah sages met under Yosef’s chairmanship and agreed to align with Likud.
Immediately afterward, Rabbi Arye Deri of Shas, who has been interior minister, met privately with Shamir, and the two men signed an agreement. Its undisclosed contents were the subject of much speculation, since Deri, too, is willing to trade land for peace.
Shamir met with Likud ministers and was scheduled to meet later with Tehiya party allies to try to convince them he made no meaningful concessions on the peace front to satisfy Shas.
LIKUD CONSOLIDATING POSITION
Shas sources said the prime minister and the rabbi reached a full understanding on the peace process. They said Yosef was convinced Shamir genuinely intends to press ahead with it.
But the same sources indicated that Israel would not respond favorably to the Baker plan if Shamir forms a new government led by Likud. They maintained that the Cairo dialogue would proceed, but were vague on the issues of Palestinian representation that has stymied it so far.
Likud, meanwhile, was busy Monday trying to consolidate its advantage. The party reached an agreement with Eliezer Mizrahi, who quit the ultra-Orthodox Agudat Yisrael party two weeks ago because it had made a deal with Labor.
If Shamir succeeds with Mizrahi, he will have 60 Knesset votes, enough to prevent Labor from setting up a government.
He is working on a Likud renegade, Avraham Sharir, who offered himself to Labor in exchange for a safe seat on its next election list.
Likud is also trying to woo away a possible Labor defector, Knesset member Efraim Gur.
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