It appears a basis has been laid down for action in the direction of an Israeli-Egyptian compromise to reopen the Suez Canal, although according to the Joint Soviet-American communique–reaffirming support for a peaceful settlement in the Middle East–the attitude of the superpowers has not changed. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat realizes the Soviet Union, at least for the present, will not sanction any war moves, according to a highly knowledgeable western diplomatic source here. While Sadat has been threatening war to recover the Sinai, he is now trapped in a canyon with walls of peace set up by the superpowers.
The Kremlin is unlikely to jeopardize the movement toward a European security conference to shore up Its western borders, even If the Cairo government is beset by domestic pressures. Neither is it likely before the November elections that President Nixon will pressure Israel into accepting something it does not want, This leaves Sadat to reexamine the opportunity for progress offered to him last year by Secretary of State William P. Rogers–an Interim agreement whereby Egypt can reopen the canal and improve the country’s economy while seeking other accommodations with Israel.
The Israelis have agreed to negotiate on the canal issue, while Cairo has rejected it, insisting on an Israeli commitment to withdraw from the Sinai first. According to western diplomatic circles here Israel might go further than It has up to now in the effort to reach a compromise solution. Nobody here is optimistic that the Jarring mission will find a formula when it has failed for so long to produce bilateral discussions.
Dr. Henry Kissinger, White House advisor on national security affairs, had said In Moscow regarding the apparent unchanged attitudes expressed In the joint US-USSR communique, that inaction is also policy. He pointed out that keeping the Arab-Israeli situation from becoming “inflamed” represents “tangible progress” between the Soviet Union and the United States.
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