Progress with Syria Seen Next Month

Well-placed sources in Jerusalem expect progress during Feb. towards breaking the present impasse between Israel and Syria. These sources anticipate that Syria will comply, in one way or another, with Israel’s precondition regarding the POWs, and in this way open the way to disengagement talks. (See related story from Washington.)

The sources base themselves on the assessment of Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger who, after his Damascus visit, reported that Syria was interested in disengagement. The Secretary also apparently believes that during next month President Assad will overcome opposition and suspicion within and without and will indeed move towards disengagement talks. At present, Syrian demands on disengagement envisage an Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines–something Israel would never contemplate. But the Israeli sources–and apparently Kissinger, too–feel that by next month Assad will be prepared to talk about the kind of disengagement that Israel has in mind.

This would be implemented solely within the area newly occupied in Oct. and would involve a pullback and interposition of UNEF, with force reductions on both sides. Once Syria is ready to contemplate that sort of disengagement the POW obstacle will be solved, the sources believe. Meanwhile, Israel is remaining totally adamant that there can be no dialogue with Syria direct or indirect, until the POW lists are produced and Red Cross visits allowed.

As far as the Egyptian disengagement is concerned, the sources say this is being carried out with meticulous regard for the letter of the agreement. Cairo is apparently determined to give Israel no opportunity to claim that its word is unreliable. Once disengagement is completed in a month’s time, the focus of attention will gradually shift back to Geneva (assuming that by then some progress has been achieved with Syria).

Israel will only agree to resume the dialogue with Egypt, the well placed sources say, if it is clear that the disengagement agreement is being carried out according to the scenario whereby normal civilian peaceable life is to be restored to the Suez Canal zone and the threat of war thus reduced. By April, say the sources, it will be clearly apparent whether or not President Sadat intends to honor his commitments in this vital area.

When and if the Israel-Egypt dialogue is resumed, Israel will press for early discussion of “the nature of the peace” rather than negotiation on further “disengagements”–meaning withdrawal. Israel must be on her guard that the Geneva conference becomes a peace conference–not a mere withdrawal conference as the Arabs wish, the sources stress. It must also be ready to counter the danger that Egypt will claim after a successful disengagement that problems can be solved by military arrangements without the need for political settlement. (David Landau)