Refugee Levels May Stay Same Next Year, but Future Unclear

With the current instability in Russia as a backdrop, the United States has been considering how many refugees, including Jews from the former Soviet Union, to admit in fiscal year 1994.

Since 1989, the United States has been admitting tens of thousands of Soviet Jews each year as refugees, and advocates see the trend remaining steady for 1994.

But there are hints from the Clinton administration that the program could be phased out within the next couple of years, a development that would greatly upset the Jewish community.

Many Jewish groups remain concerned that the politically and economically unstable situation in the former Soviet Union is continuing to result in persecution of Jews.

But some in the U.S. government think that with the fall of the Soviet Union, there is little need for special refugee programs for Jews from that region.

President Clinton is expected to ask Congress to permit 55,000 refugees to arrive here from the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe during the 1994 fiscal year, which begins Friday.

During the 1993 fiscal year, Congress provided funds for a maximum of 50,000 refugees from the former Soviet Union and another 1,500 from Eastern Europe. The combined total for 1994 would allow an additional 3,500 refugees to enter the country.

In the past, Jewish groups have reached informal agreements with the government that a high percentage of refugees from the former Soviet Union will be Jews.

In previous years, about 80 percent of the refugees have been Jewish, and the number is expected to remain about the same or drop slightly if large numbers of people fleeing Bosnia-Herzegovina seek refuge in the United States.

Martin Wenick, executive vice president of the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society, one of the key groups dealing with Jewish refugees, said last week that he expects the number of Jews admitted from the former Soviet Union to stay at about 40,000, the same level as in fiscal year 1993.

WOULD LIKE TO PHASE OUT PROGRAM

HIAS estimates that approximately 37,000 Jewish refugees from the former Soviet republics will have immigrated here by the end of the 1993 fiscal year. By comparison, 47,750 arrived in 1992 and 27,628 arrived in 1991.

In testimony before House and Senate committees last week, administration officials and refugee advocates discussed the often-touchy questions surrounding both current and future refugee programs.

Currently, there are two major refugee programs, serving Southeast Asia and the former Soviet Union, which together account for the bulk of the refugees admitted to the United States each year.

The administration plans to cut the Southeast Asia program within a year and hinted that it would like to phase the Soviet program out within a couple of years.

In testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee last Thursday, Secretary of State Warren Christopher spoke cautiously of improvements in the Russian political situation that could result in changes in upcoming years.

In reply to a question from Sen. Alan Simpson (R-Wyo.), Christopher said, “The situation in the Soviet Union is rapidly changing in the direction of greater freedom and less persecution.”

“I would expect over the next couple of years to have quite a dramatic change” in the refugee situation in the former Soviet Union “if the conditions of growing freedom persist in the Soviet Union,” the secretary said.

But he added that the situation is still unstable, as witnessed by the current political crisis pitting Russian President Boris Yeltsin against the Russian Parliament.

Also, in response to a question from Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), Christopher commented on the ongoing anti-Semitism in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.

“Those problems, those ugly problems are not behind us,” he conceded.

CONCERN OVER BOSNIAN REFUGEES

HIAS officials said that Warren Zimmerman, the State Department’s refugee affairs director, was more blunt about the future of the refugee program for the former Soviet Union, in testimony the same day before the House Judiciary subcommittee on international law, immigration and refugees.

Zimmerman, they said, discussed phasing out the refugee program. But he, too, raised concern over the continuing instability in the former Soviet Union.

HIAS officials say they are in constant touch with the administration over the fate of the refugee program. If it were replaced with a regular immigration program, they say, it would be much harder for Jews to immigrate here from the former Soviet Union because of more stringent entry requirements.

Another concern for Jewish groups and others is the issue of refugees from Bosnia.

Concerned about the “ethnic cleansing” taking place in that former Yugoslav republic, HIAS has urged the administration to ensure that efficient facilities are in place to process those Bosnians who wish to seek refuge here.

The administration’s plans call for a world-wide total of 120,000 refugees to enter the country during the 1994 fiscal year, a reduction of 2,000 from 1993.

Because of the unstable situation in Bosnia, which could result in a higher number of Bosnians seeking refuge here, the administration is combining the numbers for the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe this year, to encourage flexibility.

It is possible that if more Bosnians are allowed to enter the United States, the number of Jews allowed to immigrate here from the former Soviet Union would decrease slightly, but HIAS does not expect a significant drop.

Wenick of HIAS was one of a number of refugee advocates testifying at last week’s House Judiciary subcommittee hearing.

In written testimony prepared for the hearing, he called for a total of 150,000 refugees to be admitted, 30,000 more than the administration’s figures, and stressed the continuing problems facing Jews in the former Soviet Union.

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