Report That Israel ‘quite Likely’ Has Nuclear Weapons

Francois Duchene, director of the Institute for Strategic Studies which is regarded as the most reliable authority on world military power, said here today that it was “quite likely” that Israel possesses nuclear weapons but it was in her interests to keep her nuclear potential ambiguous because “ambiguity is also a mighty deterrent.” Duchene and Deputy Director Brig. Kenneth Hunt spoke in reply to questions at a press conference marking publication of the Institute’s report on the balance of world military power in 1971-72. The section of the report dealing with the balance in the Middle East noted that Israel heads the list for defense expenditures in terms of gross national product. The report stated that Israel added 40 combat aircraft to her air force during the past year while Egypt added 100. It estimated some 30,000 Soviet advisors in Egypt and a considerable number of Soviet aircraft flown by Russian pilots. Egypt received another 250 tanks from the Soviet Union during the period under review and SAM missile sites in Egypt are Soviet controlled, the report said.

According to the survey Israel is capable of fielding 10 armored divisions, nine infantry divisions and four parachute brigades. Egypt has three armored divisions, four mechanized divisions, five infantry divisions, two parachute brigades, 16 artillery brigades and 20 commando battalions. Duchene and Hunt stressed that mere figures for tanks, aircraft and other hardware could be grossly misleading. They said the total must be judged against the background of the scientific and industrial potential of a country, the quality of her manpower, the level of training and the dedication of her combat and non-combat troops. Under these considerations, Israel’s military power is by far larger than the figures would indicate, they said. Israel is listed among the 24 countries in the world which develop and produce their own arms. Egypt is not on the list.