Premier-designate Yitzhak Shamir is expected to present his new coalition government to the Knesset next Monday and to win its approval by a majority of at least 61 and possibly 64 votes.
This is the view of seasoned political observers here who note that Shamir has apparently satisfied six Likud and independent MKs who made their support of a Shamir government contingent on his allowing more time for efforts to bring the Labor Alignment into a national unity coalition. Shamir also appears to have ironed out his difficulties with the Orthodox Aguda Israel party.
The six dissenters had warned that they would not support Shamir’s new coalition if he brought it before the Knesset for a vote this week. The six are Knesset Speaker Menachem Savidor; Yitzhak Berman; Dror Zeigerman; and Dan Tichon, all of Likud’s Liberal Party wing; and Mordechai Ben-Porat and Yigael Hurwitz, independents. All are members of the outgoing coalition.
Three Labor MKs who strongly support a national coalition have taken the same position. They are Arik Nehamkin, Yehezkel Zakkai and Rabbi Menachem Hacohen, all representatives of the Moshav movement
Four of the six coalition members have now made it clear that if efforts for a national unity government produce no results by the end of this week, they are prepared to support a Likud-led coalition in the Knesset next week. The other two are likely to go along.
COMPROMISE FORMULA DRAFTED
The Likud-Labor talks collapsed last Friday over issues of foreign policy and West Bank settlements. The nine MKs who insist that further efforts be made have drafted a compromise formula for the divisive settlements issue which they think might be acceptable to both sides.
Under their formula, decisions on settlements made by the Cabinet until now would be implemented but new settlement decisions would require approval by two-thirds of the Cabinet, giving the Labor members of a unity government an effective veto.
Likud’s rightwing and the ultra-nationalist Tehiya party oppose any such compromise. But according to Meron Benvinisti, a leading authority on the settlements issue, it would hardly constrain the settlement drive.
Benvinisti, a former Deputy Mayor of Jerusalem who has done an exhaustive study of the West Bank situation for the American Enterprise Institute, explained to reporters that existing government settlements projects call for upwards of 200,000 Jewish settlers in the territory in the next few years.
In Benvinisti’s view, the proposed compromise would in no way secure for Labor any modification of Likud’s plans for the West Bank. Benvinisti himself believes that those plans are already a fait accompli, that the West Bank is already annexed to Israel in fact if not officially, and that this will result, in a relatively short time, in a bi-national state or dual society with the gravest consequences for Israel’s future.
THE PRESENT SCENARIO
In any event, the argument over the compromise formula is academic observers believe, because neither of the major parties seem prepared to accept it.
According to the present scenario, if some of the six coalition dissenters oppose Shamir in the Knesset next week, or abstain, he will have to rely on the vote of Premier Menachem Begin and Tami party leader Ahan on Abu Hatzeira for an absolute majority. Begin has been confined to his home for the past four weeks with a skin ailment but aides say he would appear in the Knesset if his vote is crucial to Shamir’s success.
Abu Hatzeira is serving a three-month sentence for embezzlement as a day worker at the Beit Dagan prison. The work day ends at 4:30 p.m. giving him ample time to cast a vote in the Knesset. But under the circumstances, Likud would prefer to do without it.
Shamir spent several hours closeted with the four Aguda Israel MKs today after the party threatened to withhold its support unless its demands for religious legislation are met by the new government. One of the MKs, Shlomo Lorincz, told reporters that his party made no new demands but was insisting on the implementation of promises made to it when the Aguda agreed to join the Likud coalition in 1981.
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