The demonstrative massing of Israeli forces along the Lebanese border during the past week has resulted in a visible easing of tension in that region. But while the possibility of clashes with Syrian or terrorist units in southern Lebanon has been reduced for the present, the massive presence of Syrian forces in Lebanon may create, in the long run, a serious new military situation for Israel, sources here said today.
Israel’s strong position has kept Syrian troops out of southern Lebanon and away from Israel’s border. But tens of thousands of Syrian troops, supported by hundreds of tanks and other armored vehicles and artillery are in virtual occupation of the rest of that country. Israel has no say as to the size of the Syrian forces or how long they will remain in Lebanon; nor can Israel ignore the possible consequences of the Syrian presence, the sources said. The danger is that eventually Lebanon may become another confrontation state.
This would force Israel to adopt an entirely new and costly strategy on the Lebanese border. Whereas up to now Israel’s deployment has been tactical, geared to the relatively easy task of presenting terrorist assaults from Lebanese bases or terrorist incursions into Israel, the situation created by powerful Syrian forces in Lebanon would require Israel to build a full-scale military front in the north. It would require the construction of elaborate fortifications costing millions of Pounds and the permanent stationing of large concentrations of Israeli troops in the area.
Should a new war break out, the Lebanese front, dormant in all past wars, would be engulfed in battle, posing major defense and logistics problems for Israel, assuming it would have to fight on other fronts as well.
A new war is not considered a possibility in the immediate future. Israeli sources say it will take the Syrians considerable time to consolidate their positions in Lebanon and while doing this, Damascus is expected to exercise restraint over the terrorists. But once the Syrians feel strong enough, they may unleash the terrorists and precipitate a confrontation with Israel, the sources said.
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