Strategic Importance of Middle East Declining, U.S. Expert Says

The strategic importance of the Middle East as the geographical center and hub of global communications is declining as a result of technological advances, according to an article in the current issue of Middle Eastern Affairs, publication of the Council for Middle Eastern Affairs

The article, by J.S. Raleigh, an authority on the Middle East, also doubts the efficacy of the “Northern Tier” concept of regional defense which, the writer says, so far has proven more of a liability than an asset to the free world and to Middle Eastern stability.

Mr. Raleigh points out that the advent of the air age has “caused a sharp decline in the importance of the classical waterways and the strong points which guard them,” such as the Suez Canal and Aden. Over the region itself, the strategic value of the various air routes and strong points has become more elastic, and while the area as a whole remains an essential link in any global air communications network, “its importance is slowly declining with the ever-expanding flying range of both military and transportation planes.”

However, Mr. Raleigh continues, “the free world needs the Middle East as a base for its own defense and for a counter-offensive in case of war; and as a territory which, in purely geographical terms, is essential for the containment of Soviet expansion. The denial of the area to Soviet Russia may well be, in military terms, even more important than its availability to the West,” he points out.

ISRAEL’S ABILITY TO DEFEND ITS TERRITORY CITED IN REVIEW

In view of the lack of stable governments, underdeveloped industrial economy, shaky socio-political structures and general backwardness in terms of health, education and modern facilities prevailing in the Middle East, Mr. Raleigh believes that “not one of the countries of the area is capable of defending itself against a serious military attack-let alone an attack by one of the strongest and most ruthless military powers-without very extensive help from the outside.”

The only exceptions are Turkey, Israel and, to a degree, Pakistan, the writer says. The latter country, however, belongs rather to southeast Asia than to the Middle East and is more significant in terms of the defense of India. While Turkey and Israel can be relied upon for a spirited defense of their own territory, neither country is in a position to send expeditionary forces outside its own borders.

Mr. Raleigh envisions Israel’s contribution to the overall defense of the Middle East as restricted, under present circumstances, “to that of an industrial workshop and repair shop for the free world.” The active participation of her armed forces in defense of the territory as a whole, he declares, presupposes a state of peace, cooperation and confidence between herself and her Arab neighbors that does not exist. However, “Israel’s importance in terms of geography and communications is great.”