Strong Robertson Showing in Iowa May Bring Religion into Campaign

The surprise second-place finish by the Rev. Pat Robertson in the Iowa Republican caucus Monday is expected to arouse concern in the Jewish community that the drive for school prayer and other efforts aimed at the erosion of the constitutional separation of church and state will become a major issue in the 1988 presidential campaign.

While Senate Minority Leader Robert Dole (R-Kan.) won a major victory in Iowa with 37 percent of the vote, Robertson was assured of being a major factor in the Republican campaign when he received 25 percent of the vote, compared to only 19 percent for Vice President George Bush.

In addition to Bush, Robertson’s showing also hurt Rep. Jack Kemp (R-N.Y.), who finished fourth with 11 percent of the vote.

As the campaign now moves on to the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday, Dole and Bush are still expected to be the leading contenders for the Republican nomination.

But the two will be seeking to win the support of the thousands of evangelical Christians Robertson is bringing into the Republican party, as will the other Republican contenders: Kemp, former Delaware Gov. Pierre du Pont IV and former Secretary of State Alexander Haig Jr.

This should become increasingly apparent when the campaign moves toward Super Tuesday, on March 8, when primaries or caucuses will be held in 20 states, half of them in the South.

Bush and Dole have supported voluntary prayer in the public schools, while Kemp has been in favor of silent prayer. But some observers believe that while the rhetoric will increase, Bush and Dole, especially, are not as ideologically committed to these social issues as is President Reagan. And it is noted that Reagan has been unable to get any of these measures approved in seven years.

Ironically, Robertson is expected to tone down his rhetoric as he becomes a larger factor in the race. Since entering the campaign, he has played down his career as a television evangelist and has instead called himself a businessman.

“I’m going to reach out to all Americans,” he stressed Monday night. “I don’t want to be a candidate of some narrow sphere of interest.”

ORTHODOX JEWISH VOTE

In a speech to the National Press Club last year, Robertson said that he expected to win support in the Jewish community, especially among Orthodox Jews, who he said share the same concern he does about moral issues.

Jewish organizations are not expected to take any public stand in the campaign. But there is concern that as Dole, Bush and Kemp seek to win over Robertson’s evangelical voters, the rhetoric will heat up, causing fear in the Jewish community.

This could be a replay of the 1984 election, when many Jews, traditionally Democrats, were considering deserting the party because of the influence of the Rev. Jesse Jackson, until the Republican nominee, President Reagan, made several speeches attacking those who oppose prayer in schools as anti-religion.

Jackson, incidently, did well in the Iowa Democratic caucus, finishing fourth with 8.7 percent of the vote, more than four times the share he received in 1984, in a state that is less than 2 percent black.

This time around, the Democratic winner, by a narrow margin, was Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo), who captured 31.3 percent of the vote, trailed by Sen. Paul Simon (D-III.), with 26.5 percent, and Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, with 22.3 percent.

Jackson, like Robertson, is also counting on Super Tuesday to make his candidacy more viable.

OPPOSITE EXTREMES ON ISRAEL

While all candidates have stressed their support of Israel, the two ministers take the opposite extremes on the Jewish state. Jackson has sought to improve his image in the Jewish community and has toned down his rhetoric on Israel.

However, he is still the most critical of any of the candidates and is the only candidate on record in favor of a Palestinian state.

At the same time, when the Des Moines Sunday Register asked all candidates about their views about a homeland the day before the Iowa caucus, Jackson, while saying he supports a homeland, stressed that “the details should be worked out by the parties themselves.”

Robertson, on the other hand, replied that “there is an autonomous homeland already for Palestine and it’s called Jordan.”

The candidates for the most part have avoided the Middle East, particularly the current unrest in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, except when they have been questioned about it. Most have voiced concern about the methods used by Israel, although they have expressed understanding for Israel’s problems.

Mideast issues should begin to play a more important role in the campaign as the candidates begin to compete for Jewish votes in three Super Tuesday states with large Jewish populations –Florida, Maryland and Massachusetts — and in Illinois, whose primary is set for March 15.

The Mideast may even grab center stage with the approach of the New York primary on April 19.