The View in Israel: Kissinger May Not Be Able to Produce This Time

U.S. Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger arrives here tomorrow to begin a round of shuttle diplomacy aimed at achieving a separation of Israeli and Syrian forces, but this time “even Mr. Miracle Man may fail,” some Israelis believe. Almost everyone agrees that the negotiating process with Syria will be drawn out, exasperating and far more difficult than the tough bargaining with Egypt that resulted in the Suez disengagement accord of last Jan. 21.

Damascus is not Cairo and the Golan Heights and the rough mountain terrain to its north and east is not the broad, flat Sinai desert, one military source observed. He was referring to the different political situations in the two Arab capitals and the different geography.

President Anwar Sadat of Egypt has opted for better relations with the U.S. and to move away from the Soviet orbit while in Damascus, Moscow’s influence was never stronger and is backed up by continuing massive supplies of war materiel, the source pointed out. Whereas Sadat had strong motivations for an accord with Israel–and for the most part is observing it in spirit as well as letter–President Hafez Assad of Syria seems convinced that intransigence and continued fighting is to his advantage. The Russians apparently are encouraging that view.

The only hopeful sign is the fact that the Syrians did send a delegation to Washington last month to present their disengagement terms to Kissinger for conveyance to Israel and they will be meeting with Kissinger again this week. In the long run too, the Syrian position is a weak one.

They lost the Yom Kippur War and cannot even claim the limited military success achieved by the Egyptians. They may be able to continue the war of attrition on the northern front for a considerable time. But they cannot launch a new, all-out war on Israel unless the Egyptians support them with an outbreak on the Sinai front. But Sadat, who has made it clear that he expects great advantages from Kissinger’s diplomacy, is not about to be dragged into a new war at this time.

FUTURE OF KUNEITRA IS A MAJOR PROBLEM

So while most Israelis agree that “disengagement is not in anybody’s pocket,” they believe that in the long run Syria will have to accept terms that are acceptable to Israel. The big problem is working out a geographical separation in the confined space of the northern front where there is little room for maneuvering. The jagged, snow-packed slag heap that is Mt. Hermon is part of that problem. Israeli forces control the peak. The Syrians retain positions on its slopes, including a portion in Lebanese territory that further complicates the situation. The Syrians’ apparent determination to hold their positions on the mountain is rooted in political and psychological factors no less than military strategy.

Similarly, Israel’s possession of Kuneitra, the largest town on the Golan Heights which it captured in the 1967 war, has greater political and psychological than military importance. The flat plain on which Kuneitra is situated is militarily insignificant but the hills to the west of it are the key to possession of the Golan Heights. Were Israel to relinquish Kuneitra in the interests of a disengagement accord, its military superiority on the Heights would not be affected but the act would touch off political turmoil at home.

POTENTIAL REPERCUSSIONS OF LEBANON’S ROLE

A new factor that is causing concern in Israel, because of its potential international repercussions rather than military effects, is the ambiguous role of Lebanon. While claiming to be noninvolved if not neutral in the Israeli-Syrian conflict, the Lebanese authorities continue to allow Arab terrorists to operate from their territory against Israel and have permitted Syrian units to occupy strategic heights on the Mt. Hermon ridges inside Lebanon.

The Lebanese have refused to return two Israeli pilots who bailed out over their territory but two Syrian pilots in a similar predicament were sent home within hours. Lebanon has claimed that Israel violated its territory by building an access road on Mt. Hermon. The claim cannot be substantiated. But even if true, Lebanon stands to benefit from the road if Israel evacuates Mt. Hermon as part of a disengagement agreement.

For the time being, Israel is loathe to take military action against Lebanon except in extreme cases such as the Kiryat Shemona massacre. Past actions have brought swift, one-sided condemnation by the UN Security Council and as Israel has recently learned, it can no longer count on a U.S. veto.