Weekend Roundup Reagan Administration on Verge of Deciding on Arms Package to Saudis

— The Reagan Administration, faced with growing opposition in Congress to selling Saudi Arabia a package of sophisticated military hardware and pressure from the Saudis to go ahead with the deal, emerged over the weekend as nearing a decision on whether to delay official notification of Congress until the summer.

The Administration will also have to decide whether to split up the sale of five AWACS intelligence-gathering planes and of additional fuel tanks and air-to-air missiles for the 62 F-15 fighter planes previously purchased by the Saudis into two separate transactions or keep them in a single package.

Reports over the weekend had Secretary of State Alexander Haig and Richard Allen, President Reagan’s National Security Advisor, both supporting splitting up the package, with Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger opposed. It was Weinberger, reportedly, who pushed through the National Security Council the decision, over Haig’s opposition, to combine the AWACS and the enhancement material, The decision was made April 13 just prior to Haig’s recent trip to the Middle East.

The official Administration position as enunciated by State Department spokesman Dean Fischer is that there is no delay on a decision since it is “impossible to postpone or delay a decision that has not been made.” He repeated again yesterday that “an announcement will be made at an appropriate time.” (See late story, P. 4).

Fischer’s only comment on the sale itself has been to refer reporters to a March 6 statement by the State Deportment which said the U.S. had decided to sell the Saudis the equipment for the F-15s and was considering some kind of defense warning system for them.

YAMANI’S AND HAIG’S VIEWS

The Department spokesman would not comment on a statement by Sheikh Ahmed Yamani, the Saudi

oil minister, that the U.S. had promised Saudi Arabia the weaponry as a package. “We got a promised from the government that it will be done and we think it will be done,” Yamani said on NBC-TV’s “Meet the Press” Sunday. He said that “not to my knowledge” was there any discussion by Haig while in Saudi Arabia about a postponement of the sale.

In an interview with ABC-TV last Friday, Haig said Congressional disapproval of the sale “would represent a grievous setback in American relationships with Saudi Arabia.” Also, it was reported Friday that a State Department official said that Haig believes that the Israelis “have a legitimate complaint” about the AWACS because the U.S. did not tell them about it in advance.

That statement was made by the official at a breakfast interview with four State Department reporters under ground rules that did not permit the official’s name to be used. But John Wallacha Hearst reporter who was one of the four, in his story identified the official as Haig.

Meanwhile, Sen. Howard Baker (R. Tenn.), the Senate Majority leader, who returned Saturday from leading a delegation on a visit to the Mideast, said there are not enough votes in the Senate to either approve or reject the sale. The sale will be rejected if both the Senate and House vote against it within 50 days of official notification.

STRONG CONGRESSIONAL OPPOSITION

Congressional opposition is especially strong over the AWACS, not only because of concern that it might endanger Israel’s security, but also because of fear following the Iranian revolution that placing the AWACS in an unstable region might cause one of the U.S.’ most sophisticated weapons to fall into the hands of the Soviet Union.

An Associated Press survey taken over the weekend found 65 Senators who indicated concern over the sale of the AWACS of whom 45 are inclined to vote against it. The AP found only 20 Senators favoring the sale.

The Israeli government originally decided not to put up a strong fight on Capitol Hill in opposition to the enhancement equipment for the F-15s in order to avoid a confrontation with the new Administration. But the AWACS in Saudi hands would have all of Israel’s military operations open to surveillance and Premier Menachen Begin said publicly several times last week that Israel will make a concerted effort in Congress to quash the deal.

At the same time, it was learned that the Israelis still hope that the Administration will withdraw the sale on its own, thus avoiding a clash between Jerusalem and Washington.

There have been reports here that the Administration will postpone the official announcement until late this summer to avoid adding a new controversy to the Congressional battle over the Reagan economic plan, which is the Administration’s first priority. Some observers claim the announcement will be postponed until after Israel’s June 30 election reportedly since the Administration does not want to give Begin an election issue. Yamani, in his television interview Sunday, said such a move would be “interfering” in Israel’s election and would help Begin.

On “Meet the Press,” Yamani also called the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty a “dead end street.” He said that the Saudis agree with the U.S. that the Soviet Union is a threat to the Mideast but consider the Israelis a “much greater” threat because the “Israelis are the entry of the Soviets to the area.”

Yamani also put a damper on one of the Administration’s major reasons for pushing the AWACS sale. The Pentagon reportedly believes that the AWACS will have to be manned by Americans for the near future, giving the U.S. an entry to stationing troops in Saudi Arabia. “We think it will invite a Russian presence in the area,” Yamani said.

But Yamani also stressed in the interview a position that is certain to be taken up by those who believe the Saudis should get the arms they want because of their oil exports to the U.S. He claimed that Saudi Arabia was responsible for the present glut in oil throughout the world and declared that Saudi Arabia would not raise its prices or reduce its production until other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered their prices.

When asked about the belief by some American experts that oil consumption is declining and that from now on Arab oil power will decline, Yamani replied that is “wishful thinking.”