Behind the Headlines Future of U.S. Mideast Policy

Diplomatic observers here and abroad believe that President Nixon’s press conference remarks on the Middle East yesterday indicated that U.S. pressure will be put on Israel to make some move to get peace negotiations with the Arabs started. The concensus was that while the President was even-handed in allocating blame for the present Middle East deadlock on both Israel and the Arab states, his rebuke to Israel was the more significant in view of the close U.S. support that country has enjoyed over the past 25 years.

Nixon made it clear that the U.S. would not sell Israel short over Arab oil threats. But for the first time he publicly linked the Arab-Israeli dispute with the oil situation, two issues the Administration previously maintained were separate.

The President indicated further that the threat to U.S. and West European oil supplies was a major reason why he has asked Dr. Henry A. Kissinger, his foreign policy advisor and Secretary of State-designate to give the highest priority to a Middle East settlement.

CAIRO PLEASED WITH SPEECH

Reports from Cairo today said diplomatic sources there expected Dr. Kissinger to visit the Egyptian capital as part of a tour that would include Israel and possibly other Arab states for background briefings for the task assigned him by Nixon. Dr. Kissinger has never visited the Mideast in any official capacity for the Administration. However, Gerald Warren, White House spokesman, today described this report as speculative and said Dr. Kissinger has no plans to visit the Mideast.

Nixon’s press conference statements were well received in the Egyptian press and Cairo observers interpreted his unexpected rebuke of Israel as the beginning of U.S. pressure on Jerusalem for concessions that could advance the negotiating process.

While there was no immediate official reaction from Israel so far to Nixon’s remarks, it was pointed out that Israel and the U.S. will sign an agreement later this month for the delivery of 48 F-4 Phantom jets and 36 A-4 Skyhawks to Israel at the rate of one a month over the next four years.

CONTEXT OF NIXON’S REMARKS ON ISRAEL

Nixon’s news conference remarks about Israel were delivered in the global context of UN Secretary General Kurt Waldheim’s trip to the Middle East to seek new approaches to negotiations; the conference of more than 70 non-aligned nations in Algiers which are considering the use of oil as a political weapon against the U.S.; Libya’s 51 percent take over of major U.S. oil firms; and the convening in two weeks of the UN General Assembly.

The President’s remarks also followed heavy pressure on the Administration from the powerful domestic oil lobby, spearheaded by Standard Oil Company of California and Mobil Oil, to change its attitude toward Israel and become more receptive to the Arab states. The remarks also followed by several weeks statements by Joseph J. Sisco, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs, and John Love, director of President Nixon’s Office of Energy Policy, that Mideast oil was a factor in America’s foreign policy thinking.

Nixon’s rebuke, following on the heels of condemnation of Israel by the UN Security Council and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) for its Aug. 10 interception of a Lebanese airliner, may be a bitter pill for the Israelis to swallow, observers here said.

The President stated at the press conference that both Israel and the Arab states are at fault and that both sides need to start negotiations. “We are not pro-Israel and we are not pro-Arab….We are pro-peace,” Nixon declared. He stated further that neither Israel nor the Arab states can wait “for the dust to settle in the Middle East,” and asserted that his Administration would use its influence, “what influence we have–with the various Arab states and with a non-Arab state like Egypt–to get those negotiations started.” One of the dividends, Nixon noted, of getting a successful negotiation “will be to reduce the oil pressure.” (The White House later stated that Nixon’s reference to Egypt as a non-Arab state was an error.)

KISSINGER MAY PAVE WAY FOR MIDEAST PEACE

While Dr. Kissinger’s nomination by Nixon was generally welcomed by Israelis who pointed out that he, after all, has been the President’s closest foreign policy advisor during a period of steadfast U.S. support of Israel, it is also known that Dr. Kissinger is identified less with the Middle East than with other Nixon foreign policy initiatives.

In the Arab world, the nomination of a Jew for Secretary of State was initially greeted with chagrin. But diplomatic sources in Cairo were reported to day to believe that if anyone can break the Mideast deadlock it is Dr. Kissinger. One Cairo editor close to President Anwar Sadat said in a recent article, “The appointment of Kissinger provides an opportunity for reaching a solution of the Middle East crisis now that the mask that was (Secretary of State William P.) Rogers has been removed. As a Jew, Kissinger would never be accused of being anti-Israeli.”