The major lesson for Israel thus for from the three-week war between Iran and Iraq is that agreements and treaties in the Middle East are “valueless, ” according to the former head of the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence and security services.
In a special interview with the Jewish Telegraphic-Agency, Meir Amit, a Labor Alignment Knesset member, who headed the Mossad in the years preceding the Six-Day War, pointed out that the Iraqis, by launching the war against Iran, abrogated a 1975 treaty between the two countries which gave Iran the control of the Shatt at Arab estuary. The treaty was signed by the late Shah and Iraq’s then Vice President Saddam Hussein who is now President.
“Only five years have passed since the signing of the treaty and one day somebody comes along and abrogates it, ” Amit said. “So what value can you attach to agreements with this kind of people?” Amit, who is now in New York as a member of the Israeli delegation to the 35th session of the United Nations General Assembly, said that another lesson for Israel is that it must be more cautious in evaluating the military powers of its neighbors.
“We have to be careful not to exaggerate nor treat with disdain the military strength of Iraq, “he observed. He pointed out that when the was broke out many expected a more impressive performance by the Iraqis, while in reality the Iranians have been performing much better than expected.
OIL CRISIS LIKELY TO FOLLOW
Amit said that a major concern for Israel is the oil crisis that is likely to follow, particularly
Amit, who also served as a General in Israel’s Defense Force, claimed that in case of an Iraqi victory, which would give Iraq control of what is now Iranian oil sources, “Saddam Hussein can become a mini-power. From Israel’s point of view it is a very dangerous situation.” Amit noted that Iraq has actively participated in all the wars against Israel.
At the same time, he continued, the Iraqi-Iranian war has divided the Arab world, “and this division is weakening to a certain degree the forces against Israel.” In Amit’s opinion, the present war will probably continue for a few more weeks unless both sides solve the acute problem of obtaining spare parts for their military weapons.
“In my view, ” he said, “neither the Russians nor the Arab countries are interested in an all-out Iraqi victory. An Iraqi victory means the strengthening of Iraq, and the stronger they become the more independent they will be. The Soviets and the Arabs are not interested in such a development.
CONSEQUENCES FOR THE PLO
As to the implications of the war on the Palestine Liberation Organization, Amit said that the fiercely anti-Israel group “is finding itself in a not very comfortable situation” since the PLO is on good terms with both sides.
As a result of the war, the Israeli military expert sold, the Palestinian problem has been pushed aside, the PLO “is trapped between two fighting friends and cannot take sides,” and the prestige of the PLO has been damaged because its intention to act as mediator between the two warring countries had failed.
The Archive of the Jewish Telegraphic Agency includes articles published from 1923 to 2008. Archive stories reflect the journalistic standards and practices of the time they were published.
