Behind the Headlines What is Hussein Waiting For?

The passive role of King Hussein of Jordan ever since Egyptian President Anwar Sadat launched his spectacular peace initiative last November has puzzled and disappointed many observers. Why has the Hashemite ruler chosen to be a spectator to the momentous events of the past two months is a question asked in Israel and abroad. What is Hussein waiting for?

According to a leading analyst of Middle Eastern affairs who specializes on Jordan, the question is not whether but when Jordan will take an active role in the negotiations crucial to its future. Dr. Asher Susser, head of the Jordanian Desk of the Shiloah Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, believes it is a matter of timing and in that respect Hussein appears to be both astute and patient.

“Any active move made by him involving the West Bank would also involve, indirectly, the Palestine issue,” Susser explained. “Since the Rabat Arab summit conference of 1974 conferred responsibility for the Palestinians solely upon the Palestine Liberation Organization, and because Sadat’s initiative is still unpopular in the Arab world and its prospects of success are still distant, an early initiative by Hussein might be counter-productive and self-defeating,” Susser said.

“By a premature move, Hussein would leave himself open to Arab accusations that he was imposing himself as the Palestinian spokesman and that could prevent him from assuming such a role for a long time to come.”

HUSSEIN FEARS PLO STATE

At this stage, Susser said, Hussein’s interests are safeguarded, at least in part, by Sadat who is seeking an agreement that will reduce Israel’s military presence on the West Bank and, consequently, its role in that territory. Ironically, Hussein’s interests are also protected by Israel’s steadfast opposition to a PLO state on the West Bank. With a Jordanian population 50 percent Palestinian, a PLO state could radicalize the Palestinian sector of Jordan and threaten the Hashemite rule. “The PLO state is Hussein’s greatest fear,” Susser noted.

He said that if Israel and Egypt reach an agreement that covers the West Bank, Hussein is likely to go along with the settlement provided that Saudi Arabia supports it. According to Susser, the Saudis are the key element in generating support for Sadat in the Arab world. Because of that factor the U.S. as well as several Arab leaders have gone to Riyadh to enlist Saudi support, he said.

Susser believes that for Hussein to accept a settlement it would have to appear to provide some form of solution to the Palestinian problem and win the support of respectable elements on the West Bank. He observed that the West Bank has no independent power base from which to influence decisions taken in the inter-Arab and international arenas. The views of the West Bankers tend to fluctuate in response to the relative status of the PLO and Hussein in the Arab world.

WEST BANKERS MIGHT SUPPORT MONARCH

It is likely that if Israel and Egypt reach an agreement acceptable to Jordan, many West Bankers would abandon the PLO and support Hussein, Susser said. He added that Hussein needs the support of the West Bankers to prevent the appearance, that he was imposing himself as their spokesman.

Susser said it may be no coincidence that the Israeli-Egyptian joint political committee will be meeting in Jerusalem. This would allow for quiet, behind-the-scenes involvement of West Bankers and even of Jordan in the negotiations.

Hussein is interested in achieving a peace settlement and would prefer one that federates the West Bank with Jordan and affords him as much influence as possible in that region, Susser said. But Hussein is not genuinely interested in self-determination for the West Bank Palestinians because he shares Israel’s fear that an independent West Bank would be dominated by the PLO.

“His timing for involvement depends on how ripe the moment is and on the certainly that he would have more to gain than to lose by entering negotiations,” Susser said. “Hussein wants an involvement that will bring peace closer for him, not more distant.”