Some stats on the Orthodox Jewish vote

Barack Obama didn’t do that badly among Orthodox Jews compared to John Kerry, but both trailed the Gore-Lieberman ticket significantly. That’s according tovote toals in precincts with high concentrations of Orthodox voters, provided by the Orthodox Union.

While these numbers are actual election returns, they’re not a completely reliable indicator of the Orthodox Jewish vote because an unknown portion of the precinct is not Jewish (while others could be Jewish but not Orthodox.)

They do show that in those selected New Jersey, Ohio and Florida precincts Obama certainly held his own from 2004. In Lakewood, N.J., he trailed Kerry by just two points (33-31), and in Teaneck, N.J. he was one percentage point below Kerry’s margin (52-51). In the two Florida precincts provided Obama did better than Kerry, 50-42 in Miami and 48-45 in Boca Raton. And in Ohio, Obama gained six points in one precinct and lost nine in another. (The full table, with details on the precincts, is below)

Arugably more interesting is the huge shift away from the Democrats since 2000. In five of the six precincts, the Democratic presidential ticket lost at least 19 points — and in some cases as much as 30 points — in those eight years, with the lion’s share of that loss in most of the precincts happening between 2000 and 2004. One could claim that the 2000 Democratic numbers are artificially high because of the presence of the first Jew of a major party ticket. It seems more likely, though, that George W. Bush’s foreign policy, particularly his reaction to the Sept. 11 attacks and the second intifada in Israel, made a significant impact on Orthodox Jewish voting behavior.

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2000, 2004, and 2008

Vote in Precincts with High-Concentration

Of Orthodox Jewish Voters

 

 

2000

2004

2008

 

Bush/

Cheney

Gore/

Lieberman

Bush/

Cheney

Kerry/

Edwards

McCain/

Palin

Obama/

Biden

Beachwood, OH1

20

 

77

35

65

28

71

Boca Raton, FL2

32

 

67

55 (48)

45 (51)

52

48

Brooklyn, NY3

34

56

66

29

Not yet available

Not yet available

Lakewood, NJ4

46

 

51

67

33

69

31

Miami, FL5

29

 

69

57

42

49

50

Teaneck, NJ6

17

 

81

47

52

49

51

Wickliffe, OH7

41

 

55

52

46

59

37

Passaic, NJ8

 

-

-

-

-

42

57

 


1 Cuyahoga County Precincts Beachwood-00-C, F, G, H, and K (Beachwood High School, 25100 Fairmount Boulevard), and University Heights-00-K, L, and M (Temple Emanu El, 2200 South Green Road)

2 Palm Beach County Precinct 4145 (Del Prado Elementary School), as identified by Boca Raton Synagogue (7900 Montoya Circle, N) After the 2000 elections, then-labeled Precinct 193B was split into two precincts, 4144 and 4145. The results given were for 4145 only, since it alone was identified as being the primary precinct for the Orthodox community; however, for a more accurate comparison from 2000, refer to the parenthetical numbers, which reflect the results of both 4144 and 4145. The 2008 numbers represent both precinct 4144 and 4145, together.

3 Aggregate results of Kings County, 48th Assembly District, which is home, among others, to Beth Torah Congregation (R. Lieberman), G’vul Ya’avetz, Young Israel of Flatbush, and Young Israel of Midwood.

4 Aggregate results of Lakewood Township.

5 Miami-Dade County Precinct 29 (North Beach Elementary School), as identified by Beth Israel Congregation (770 West 40th Street).  Voter turnout for the precinct was 46% less in 2004 than in 2000, which is likely due to early voting in other precincts.

6 Bergen County, Teaneck, Districts D-11, D-12, and D-18, which are home to Beth Aaron Congregation (Rabbi Rothwachs), Bnei Yeshurun Congregation (Rabbi Pruzansky), Congregation Keter Torah (Rabbi Baum), and Rinat Yisrael Congregation (Rabbi Adler).

7 Lake County, Wickliffe City Ward 2, Precinct B (Wickliffe Middle School, 29240 Euclid Avenue).  Telshe Yeshiva borders on Lake and Cuyahoga Counties.

8 Passaic County, City of Passaic, Ward 3 (School #3, Ahavas Ctr, School #1, Senior Ctr, School #3).

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