Dayan More Pessimistic About Peace Prospects Than Begin and Weizman

Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan appears to be considerably more pessimistic in his assessment of peace prospects than the other two top policymakers, Premier Menachem Begin and Defense Minister Ezer Weizman. The difference has come to the fore since the sudden break off of the political talks in Jerusalem three weeks ago.

Since that time Dayan has been saying, in private and semi-private forums, that without genuine substantive movement by one side or the other (or both) there is little chance of resuming a meaningful political dialogue.

He is stressing that the main bone of contention is not the Rafah settlements but the overall West Bank-Palestinian problem on which there is a standoff between Egypt’s “self-determination” demand and Israel’s “self-rule” proposal. Begin and Weizman, for their part, continue to voice more hopeful prognoses. At yesterday’s Cabinet meeting, Weizman reported that “progress” was achieved during last week’s military talks in Cairo.

Pressed by newsmen, Cabinet Secretary Arye Naor said the “progress” referred to the very resumption of the talks and the reestablishment of dialogue, “which of itself creates momentum,” rather than to any specific new give and take. At the same time, there is a feeling among observers, despite the blanket of intense secrecy under which the talks were conducted, that there was indeed some substantive progress, too.

BEGIN RADIATES OPTIMISM

Begin, in public and private appearances, continues to radiate optimism, albeit less buoyant than immediately after Sadat’s Jerusalem visit. An aide of the Premier told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency that Begin “sees ten moves ahead, while Dayan sees only three.”

This source and others acknowledged that Dayan has been consistent–ever since Sadat announced his peace initiative–in stressing that substantive gaps exist between the sides that sometimes have been blurred by the diplomatic dramas.

Meanwhile, there was a feeling of frank relief in official Jerusalem today as the first media reports of the Sadat-Carter meeting at Camp David arrived. Statements attributed to American officials that the U.S. does not intend to pressure Israel were greeted warmly.

Dayan, leaving for Switzerland and the U.S. on a political and fund-raising mission, said he welcomed the news that Assistant Secretary of State Alfred Atherton would be returning to the region to continue his shuttle diplomacy. Dayan said he hoped to be back in time to take part in this renewed effort.

(In New York, a spokesman for the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations said today that Dayan’s first meeting with U.S. Jewish leaders will be with the Presidents Conference Wednesday morning.)