Election Analysis: Labor May Now Be Dependent on the Nrp if It Wishes to Form Another Government Coa

A relatively small drop for Labor, a relatively minor increase for Likud–and the upshot is enormously increased political power for the National Religious Party which neither dropped nor Increased but maintained its 12 Knesset seats. Such are the vagaries of Israel’s multi-party politics that this peculiar sounding assessment Is in fact the basic outcome of Monday’s national election. In simple terms, the Labor Alignment will probably (final results are not known yet and things may still change) be dependent upon the NRP to an unprecedented extent If It wishes to form another government coalition without the inclusion of Likud.

Or–looked at from another angle–Labor will probably not be able to form a majority coalition relying only on the Independent Liberals, the Arab pro-Labor affiliates, and Shulamit Aloni’s Civil Rights List. Such a coalition would not top 60 seats–or would only just top 60, making it unsafe and unstable. With the NRP too, on the other hand. Labor would have a comfortable 70-plus and would command a strong government and be able to face the enhanced Likud opposition, A great deal, then, will hinge upon the NRP’s position in the horsetrading which will now begin with the aim of establishing the new government. Labor itself seems divided as to Its evaluation of NRP’s likely pose. While the Labor Party election campaign manager Avraham Offer spoke on TV of the likelihood of new elections soon because. In his view. Labor had not been given a strong enough mandate, the party’s Secretary-General, Aharon Yadlin. sounded confident that Labor would be able to continue In harness-with the NRP, the ILP and Shulamit Aloni.

Clearly, at any rate, Labor Is going to try to re-form the present coalition. Clearly, too, the bargaining with NRP will be tougher than ever–because of the new balance of power, and also because of NRP’s declared hawkish policies on the West Bank territorial Issue. The NRP is committed to the electorate not to Join a government whose policy Is to redivide western Palestine– in other words to return some of the West Bank to the Arabs. Religious and historical considerations play the major part In this NRP position.

Can Labor woo NRP to Its corner? That key question depends on many factors. One of them is the personality factor: Who Is to be the real Labor leadership and who the NRP leadership? The religious party is much closer on the Issues of borders and defense to Defense Minister Moshe Dayan and premier Golda Meir than to the newly-strong Labor doves led by Finance Minister Pinhas Sapir, Deputy Premier Yigal Allon and Foreign Minister Abba Eban. Which Labor team will emerge now as the real guiding force within Labor and the real spokesman of Its policies? This question Itself Is Intimately bound up with the election results–and with Labor’s reinforced dependency on NRP. If Labor had triumphed In the polls, there Is little doubt that It would have shifted further to the left and perhaps even forced-Dayan out. As It Is, though. Labor needs Dayan and his ex-Rafites in order to keep above water. Hence Dayan, because of Labor’s drop In the polls, would seem to have emerged with his position inside the party strengthened.

This is particularly the case when it Is borne In mind that the various Left-of- Labor fringe group peace parties did not put up much of a showing. The doves in Labor can hardly claim that the elections demonstrated a significant swing to the minimalist policies of the doves Inside and outside the Labor party. Assuming then that the Dayan-Golda camp In Labor Is strengthened by the party’s weakening, and that this line will continue to guide Labor, will NRP allow Itself to be wooed into a coalition under this leadership? Of course, NRP would ask and receive a heavy, price in terms of religious arrangements–sabbath, education, etc., etc.

Usually, that Is enough, but this time It may not be–because NRP Itself Is by no means united and there are hawkish pressures within that party which constantly push the leadership towards a harder and harder line on the territorial question. Dr. Yosef Burg and Michael Hazani; the present NRP leaders might well wish to compromise with Labor and reform the traditional coalition. They might seek to accept Labor’s formulations regarding the West Bank such as the Jordan River as the “security border”, or a federation or confederation scheme designed to Include Jewish settlements In historic areas and military security without necessarily seeking political sovereignty over the whole West Bank. The NRP’s internal “opposition,” Dr. Yitzhak Rafael’s young faction led by Zevulun Hammer and Yehuda Ben-Meir, might very well spurn all such compromise and Insist that the NRP as a whole remain firm in its pre-election demand for a “national emergency cabinet” to embrace Likud, too.

The NRP’s Immediate post-election statements, apart from obvious satisfaction that the party retained its strength, adopted a hard line with Burg calling for a national emergency coalition. Ex-Rafi Minister Shimon Peres early this morning seemed to forecast the hectic days and weeks ahead when he predicted “great difficulties” for Labor in setting up a coalition this time. But he hoped it would be possible, and it was clear that Labor’s first move would be to attempt it. Mrs. Meir is bitterly opposed to a national unity Cabinet which she feels would be hopelessly para- Iyzed at Geneva and would inevitably result in the conference failing to achieve anything. One further point: Yadlin clearly ruled out today the possibility of bringing Moked or any of the other far-left groups into the coalition, Moked will certainly have one Knesset seat and perhaps two, and possibly some other leftist list might attain the one percent minimum–but Labor does not want to rely on them.