A major war will break out again in the Middle East in three to five years, the time it would take for Israel and the Arabs to restore their military capabilities. This dire prediction was made here last night by Brig. Gen. (Ret.) S.L. A. Marshall, the noted historian and military analyst who received nationwide acclaim for his analysis of the tactics of Israel and the Arabs during the Yom Kippur War.
Marshall, who has been a military consultant to Israel and occasionally to the Pentagon, said it would take another three to five years to train replacements for the young Israel, Egyptian and Syrian leaders killed in the war. The same amount of time would also be required by the Soviet Union and the United States to rebuild the military arsenals of their client states he added. He also observed that the Palestinian problem would by then still remain unresolved and the USSR would press for another war in the hope of restoring absolute control of the Suez Canal to Egypt and unhindered Russian access to the Indian Ocean.
SAYS KISSINGER TIPPED OFF EGYPT
The 71-year-old analyst also blamed Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger for tipping off Egypt that Israeli intelligence knew when the war would begin. As a result, Marshall stated, Egypt launched its attack earlier in the day while Israel was still preparing for it. Marshal made this statement to newsmen before addressing the local Association of U.S. Armies, a national group of active and retired army officers, on his recent tour of the Mideast battleground. There was no immediate comment from Kissinger or his office in Washington.
Marshall stated that news of Egypt’s plan to attack Israel arrived in Jerusalem at about 4:30 a.m. on Yom Kippur, and to Premier Golda Meir two hours later. Mrs. Meir, he said, ruled out a pre-emptive strike on the grounds that Israel might lose U.S. support but told a few “friendly” ambassadors and an American general.” Kissinger was informed, but in trying to restrain Egypt tipped President Anwar Sadat that Israel knew the attack was due that day. As a result, Sadat ordered the attack to be launched at 2 p.m. instead of 6:40 p.m., Marshall said.
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