While writing about why he believes Jews are much more likely to be Democrats in The Hill newspaper, pollster Mark Mellman notes a poll he did which demonstrated how important it is for a candidate to be perceived as "pro-Israel":
Support for Israel is a critical element of Jews’ voting behavior. An experiment we embedded in a survey for the National Jewish Democratic Council provides the most telling evidence. For half of the sample we pitted a Republican candidate "Jones" who had a "strong pro-Israel record" and a variety of typical Republican issue positions against a Democratic opponent "Smith," who also had a “strong pro-Israel record” along with typical Democratic positions on the same issues. The other half of the sample was given identical portraits of “Jones” and "Smith" except that, for the second group, the Democrat lacked the pro-Israel record.
Comparing the vote in the two halves of the sample reveals the substantial difference support for Israel makes to Jewish voters.
The pro-Israel Democrat won by a 45-point margin, while the Democrat who was identical, except on Israel, eked out only a three-point win. Support for Israel alone created a massive 42-point swing in the margin, clear evidence of the centrality of Israel to Jewish voters.
Mellman does note that "exactly what constitutes a ‘pro-Israel candidate’ remains uncertain, but offeres some criteria based on recent surveys of the Jewish community by the American Jewish Committee and others:
Ninety-four percent of Jews believe the Palestinians must recognize Israel as a Jewish state; two-thirds would endorse Israeli military action to prevent Iran from going nuclear; nearly six in 10 oppose a compromise that left Jerusalem divided or outside Israeli sovereignty. While 60 percent would dismantle at least some Israeli settlements in exchange for peace, only 8 percent would dismantle them all. As J Street’s poll makes clear, 75 percent supported Israel’s military action in Gaza, while almost the entire community supports an active role for the U.S. in pursuing peace.
