Two weeks after the election, the Republican Jewish Coalition is touting a poll showing that New Jersey Republican Gov.-elect Chris Christie took 38 percent of the Jewish vote in the state. But there are a few facts about the poll that should lead political observers to be quite skeptical of the results.
Linked here is the memo that the RJC sent out noting that Democrat John Corzine took 62 percent of the Jewish vote to Christie’s 38 percent — still a large victory among Jewish voters but significantly lower than the 78 percent Barack Obama received according to exit polls last year.
But the poll only surveyed 72 Jewish voters, which gives us a large margin of error of plus or minus 11.5 percentage points. (Back in the 2008 campaign, GOP pollster Frank Luntz said a poll with a margin of error that high was "unreliable.")
In addition, the poll, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, was commissioned by the Republican National Committee and was not an exit poll but a post-election poll. That means that respondents were contacted on the evening of Election Day and the day after the election and asked who they voted for. National Jewish Democratic Council executive director Ira Forman notes that a number of studies have shown that voters are much more likely to say they backed the winner when asked who they voted for after the election.
RJC executive director Matt Brooks responded that since the poll overall found almost exactly the same distribution of votes among the candidates as the actual results produced, there wasn’t any post-election change in behavior.
Brooks said the poll is an "important data point" in showing that independent Jewish voters are not happy with Barack Obama, noting that Corzine was even on the ticket with a Jewish running mate, lieutenant governor candidate Loretta Weinberg.
Forman said the flawed numbers, particularly because of the small sample size don’t tell us much at all about the Jewish vote in New Jersey on Election Day.
"It’s fairly meaningless," he said.
After the jump, the RJC’s release on the numbers: [[READMORE]]
Republican Jewish Coalition Executive Director Matthew Brooks commented today on a post-election poll done by McLaughlin & Associates in New Jersey on November 3 and 4, 2009:
"Recently released post-election poll results from New Jersey show that Republican Chris Christie won 38% of the Jewish vote this year in his run for governor. We are pleased by Christie’s strong showing in the Jewish community in a very close race. [Click here to download a memo of the poll results.]
"The Jewish community was a key battleground in this election, with both Republicans and the Democrats actively campaigning for Jewish support. In past elections, when a New Jersey gubernatorial race was close, the Jewish community made an important difference. This year, as in 1993 and 1997, it is clear that the strong Jewish turnout for Chris Christie helped put the Republican candidate over the top.
"We believe that the 2009 election in New Jersey was not just a referendum on the job Jon Corzine has done as governor, but also on the larger national question of whether voters approve of the policies of President Obama and the Democratic Congress. There is a definite sense of ‘buyers’ remorse,’ especially among independents, about the higher taxes, higher deficits, and higher spending that Obama and Corzine represent.
"New Jersey is a state in serious economic crisis. Given the choice for four more years of Corzine/Obama policies, a large segment of the Jewish community voted for Republican Chris Christie and real change."
