Two opposing attack-Iran analyses


I follow CNN’s Ben Wedeman on Twitter (@bencnn) and today he recommended two decidedly different forecasts viz: the West and Iran in coming months.

There’s this from the Guardian:

Britain’s armed forces are stepping up their contingency planning for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern over Tehran’s nuclear enrichment programme, the Guardian has learned.

The Ministry of Defence believes the US may decide to fast-forward plans for targeted missile strikes at some key Iranian facilities. British officials say that if Washington presses ahead it will seek, and receive, UK military help for any mission, despite some deep reservations within the coalition government.

In anticipation of a potential attack, British military planners are examining where best to deploy Royal Navy ships and submarines equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles over the coming months as part of what would be an air- and sea-launched campaign.

Let’s stipulate here that what the British seem to be preparing for is a potential attack — not one that is in the go-ahead stages. But still.

And then, at 972, Larry Derfner reads the Israeli press and makes a persuasive case that the debate has effectively changed in Israel; the Israeli defense establishment opposes an attack, and they are not alone. And without the defense establishment’s approval, there will be no attack.

In all the rising volume over Netanyahu and Barak’s plot to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilties, by far the most important sound in the air is silence – the silence of the heads of the IDF, IDF Intelligence, Mossad and Shin Bet. In his Friday column that broke it all open, Nahum Barnea wrote in Yediot Aharonot that the four security/intelligence chiefs – Benny Gantz (IDF), Aviv Cochavi (IDF Intelligence), Tamir Pardo (Mossad) and Yoram Cohen (Shin Bet) were all opposed to an attack. Since then, none of them have denied it, none of them or “sources close to” them have said a word. Which means it’s confirmed – all four leaders of Israel’s professional military-intelligence establishment are against bombing Iran.

Which means it ain’t gonna happen, at least not until further notice. The prime minister and defense minister can’t overrule the unanimous opinion of Israel’s war council – especially when all four of their immediate predecessors, led by ex-Mossad chief Meir Dagan – are also against it.

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