Glenn Greenwald, who claims to have a jones for not jumping to conclusions, thinks there’s "no doubt" some combination of Israel and the United States killed Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan.
Andrew Sullivan thinks it’s "naive" to think it’s anyone but Israel.
I would not be surprised or shocked to find out it is Israel. I’m not going to get into the morality or the wisdom of the hit, because that’s not my job.
But, as long as we’re trafficking in "doubt," let’s consider the following:
- Russia and a Pakistan have vested interests in keeping other regional powers from going nuclear.
- Pakistan and Russia — or at least Russia’s close allies — are within longrange missile range of Iran.
- Russia and Pakistan have at different times assisted Iran in shaping its nuclear program. There are Russian and Pakistani officials who know who exactly it would be worth killing to cripple it.
- There are Russian and Pakistani officials who have recently visited Tehran and know exactly which streets lead where.
- Russia and Pakistan can tap into vastly greater quantities than just about anyone else of potential assassins who speak fluent Persian and understand the culture of the country. Pakistan through Dari speakers in Afghanistan, Russia through its allies in Takijistan.
- Intelligence services in both countries are not shy about bringing potential threats to a violent end, and have acted beyond their borders.
I’m not saying it’s one or the other or both. I’m not saying it isn’t Israel. I’m not even saying Israel is not working with Russia. Any of these combinations is plausible.
But please. There is plenty of room for "doubt."